How the War in the Middle East Influences Your Mortgage Rates and Financial Strategies
Recently, the Middle East has seen an intensification of conflicts, particularly in Iran, which has unexpected repercussions on the global economy, especially on your mortgages here in Canada. Contrary to what one might think, this war is not leading to a decrease in interest rates, as has been observed in past conflicts, but rather upward pressure. To understand why, we must look at the energy impact and its repercussions on inflation and monetary policy.
The Effect of Wars on the Economy: What's Different This Time
Historically, a war can slow down a country’s economy, reduce growth, and increase unemployment. In these situations, the Bank of Canada has sometimes chosen to lower its interest rates to stimulate consumption and support the job market. The logic is simple: lower rates encourage businesses and consumers to borrow and spend, thus keeping the economic machine running despite uncertainty.
However, this particular conflict has primarily an energy impact. Oil and natural gas largely pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic point between Iran and Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The current situation is blocking this passage, either through threats or direct actions on oil-carrying vessels. The result: a large portion of the world’s oil is no longer reaching international markets.
Inflation and Price Increases: Why Your Costs Are Rising
When oil supply decreases and demand remains stable, prices rise rapidly. You’ve probably noticed it at the pump: the price of gasoline in some regions has climbed to nearly $1.90 per liter, whereas not long ago it was around $1.45–$1.50.
But gasoline isn’t just for your car. It fuels the transport of goods: trucks, boats, and delivery of essential items like food or books. Every increase in the price of oil therefore affects almost all goods and services, generating what is known as inflation.
For the Bank of Canada, inflation is a signal to monitor closely. If it becomes persistent, it can harm economic stability. One of the main levers to curb inflation is to reduce demand by increasing interest rates. The more rates increase, the more expensive it becomes to borrow, which slows down spending and investment, and consequently, moderates inflation.
Mortgage Rates: Variable vs. Fixed
This situation has direct implications for your mortgages, and it is crucial to understand the difference between variable and fixed rates.
Variable Rate
The variable rate is directly linked to the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate. If the Bank raises its rate to curb inflation, your monthly payments can increase rapidly. This means your housing costs are more sensitive to immediate economic changes.
Fixed Rate
The fixed rate, on the other hand, is primarily influenced by Canadian bonds and investor behavior. When economic uncertainty rises or inflation is anticipated, investors demand higher returns to buy bonds. This drives up fixed rates on 3, 4, or 5-year mortgages. Unlike variable rates, fixed rates react more quickly to market expectations than to official Bank of Canada figures, because investors do not wait for official statistics: they act as soon as they perceive a risk.
Currently, lenders have already started to increase their fixed rates by 0.15 to 0.25 points, some promotions have been withdrawn, and market rates are rising rapidly. This may surprise those who thought they would benefit from a period of stability.
Strategies for Borrowers and Renewals
In this context, what can homeowners and future buyers do?
- Reserve your rate in advance
If you need to renew your mortgage in a few months, it may be advantageous to lock in your rate now, even if your maturity date is far off. For example, if your rate was 3.90% and rates are now 4.25%, reserving your rate can save you several hundred dollars per year. - Be vigilant and follow economic news
The situation can evolve rapidly, especially if the conflict intensifies or other geopolitical factors intervene. Staying informed allows you to make informed decisions and take advantage of favorable windows to fix or renew your rate. - Compare fixed and variable rate options
The variable rate remains lower in certain circumstances and can be advantageous if you anticipate that the Bank of Canada will slow its rate hikes. The fixed rate protects against uncertainty and rapid increases, but costs more right now. An analysis of your risk tolerance and repayment horizon is essential. - Act quickly
Changes in the bond market and investor decisions influence fixed rates almost instantly. If you wait too long, you could miss the opportunity for a more advantageous rate.
Conclusion
The war in Iran and tensions in the Middle East have a direct impact on your finances, particularly your mortgages. Unlike previous conflicts, the main effect here is energy-related: the oil blockade leads to increased inflation, which pushes the Bank of Canada to consider rate hikes to control the economy.
For borrowers, understanding the difference between variable and fixed rates, and acting quickly to secure favorable conditions, is more important than ever. In a context where geopolitics directly influences your monthly payments, every decision counts. It is therefore important to surround yourself with professionals… like Pierre-Alain!
Note: For a personalized strategy, it’s essential to work with your mortgage broker and financial advisor, as every situation is unique and must be handled on a case-by-case basis.
Note 2: If you don’t have a financial planner, financial advisor, or insurance advisor, give us a call — we know the best!
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514-771-4413
pierre-alain@planipret.com
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514-771-4413
pierre-alain@planipret.com